# find the best prediction model

Not what you're looking for?

Resource: Ch. 12-14 of Applied Statistics in Business and Economics

Prepare answers to the following assignments:

Exercise 14.6 - Time Series Analysis

Given the following data on Asian and European Share of U.S. Light Truck Sales(1990-2003):

Year t Percent

1990 1 16.4

1991 2 17.1

1992 3 14.3

1993 4 13.7

1994 5 14.2

1995 6 13.6

1996 7 13.6

1997 8 15.4

1998 9 16.2

1999 10 18.4

2000 11 21.2

2001 12 23.1

2002 13 23.9

2003 14 26.6

Source: Detroit Free Press, November 19, 2003. p.1A.

(a) Plot the market-share data. [Enter the data in Excel, highlight 'percent' column, click Insert menu, choose Line chart, select Line with Markers]

(b) Describe the trend (if any) and discuss possible causes.

(c) Fit three trends (linear, exponential, quadratic/polynomial). [Right click the line chart/line marker, select 'add trendline', default is linear. Check the box 'Display equation on chart'. Repeat the process for other trends after selecting each trend].

(d) Which trend model is best, and why? If none is satisfactory, explain.

(e) Make a forecast for 2004 by using a trend model of your choice or a judgment forecast.

##### Purchase this Solution

##### Solution Summary

The solution provides detailed explanation how to find out the best prediction model.

##### Purchase this Solution

##### Free BrainMass Quizzes

##### Measures of Central Tendency

This quiz evaluates the students understanding of the measures of central tendency seen in statistics. This quiz is specifically designed to incorporate the measures of central tendency as they relate to psychological research.

##### Measures of Central Tendency

Tests knowledge of the three main measures of central tendency, including some simple calculation questions.

##### Terms and Definitions for Statistics

This quiz covers basic terms and definitions of statistics.

##### Know Your Statistical Concepts

Each question is a choice-summary multiple choice question that presents you with a statistical concept and then 4 numbered statements. You must decide which (if any) of the numbered statements is/are true as they relate to the statistical concept.