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Seasonal index of lumber production

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The quarterly production of pine lumber, in millions of board feet, by Northwest Lumber sine 1996 is:

Year | Winter | Spring | Summer | Fall
1996 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 14.7 | 9.3
1997 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 17.5 | 9.3
1998 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 15.3 | 10.1
1999 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 16.8 | 10.7
2000 | 9.2 | 13.6 | 17.1 | 10.3

a. Determine the typical seasonal pattern for the production data using the ratio-to-moving-average method.

b. Interpret the pattern.

c. Deseasonalize the data and determine the linear trend equation.

d. Project the seasonally adjusted production for the four quarters of 2001.

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Using detailed explanation and calculation, this solution determines the seasonal pattern and linear trend, including a graph. It is attached in Excel format.

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