# Marginal probability

When an increase in precaution will reduce liability from 10% to 4%, for example, how do you compute that? If the damages were $500,000 would it be 6% of $500,000?

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#### Solution Summary

Marginal probability is determined. An increase in precaution which will reduce liability is discussed.

Joint probability/Conditional Probability

The oasis outpost of Abu Ilan, in the heart of the Negev desert, has a population of 20 Bedouin tribesmen and 20 Farima tribesmen. El Kamin, a nearby oasis, has a population of 32 Bedouins and 8 Farima. A lost Israeli soldier, accidentally separated from his army unit, is wandering through the desert and arrives at the edge of one of the oases. The soldier has no idea which oasis he has found, but the first person he spots at a distance is a Bedouin. What is the probability that he wandered into Abu Ilahn? What is the probability that he is in El Kamin?

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