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    Prediction of ARMA(1,1) Model

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    You have estimated the following ARMA(1,1) model for some time series data:

    Yt = 0.21 + 1.32Yt-1 + 0.58Ut-1 + Ut

    Suppose that you have data for time to t-1, i.e. you know that Yt-1 = 3.4 and = -1.3

    (a) Obtain forecasts for the series y for times t, t+1 and t+2 using the estimated ARMA model.

    (b) If the actual values for the series turned out to be 4.1, 5.6 and 6.2 for t, t+1 and t+2, respectively, calculate the (out-of-sample) mean squared error.

    The equation is attached at below.

    © BrainMass Inc. brainmass.com October 10, 2019, 7:35 am ad1c9bdddf
    https://brainmass.com/economics/econometric-models/prediction-arma-1-1-model-587615

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    Word doc and PDF give the forecast and mean squared error for a given time series model.

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