You have estimated the following ARMA(1,1) model for some time series data:
Yt = 0.21 + 1.32Yt-1 + 0.58Ut-1 + Ut
Suppose that you have data for time to t-1, i.e. you know that Yt-1 = 3.4 and = -1.3
(a) Obtain forecasts for the series y for times t, t+1 and t+2 using the estimated ARMA model.
(b) If the actual values for the series turned out to be 4.1, 5.6 and 6.2 for t, t+1 and t+2, respectively, calculate the (out-of-sample) mean squared error.
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Word doc and PDF give the forecast and mean squared error for a given time series model.
Forecasting with autocorrelations and partial autocorrelations
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