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    Forecast demand for units. Would a naive forecast produce better results?

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    A manager has been using a certain technique to forecast demand for word processing units for the past six periods. Actual and predicted amounts are shown below. Would a naive forecast have produced better results?

    Period--------Demand-------Forecast
    1---------------90----------------87
    2---------------85----------------88
    3---------------91----------------87
    4---------------92----------------89
    5---------------95----------------90
    6---------------88----------------92

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    https://brainmass.com/business/strategy-and-business-analysis/forecast-demand-units-naive-forecast-produce-better-results-7490

    Solution Preview

    There are many types of naive forecasts. Simple (next period same as this period), change (rate of growth determined by change between two period). In this situation, it appears that a simple naive forecast is ...

    Solution Summary

    The solution discusses several forecasting methods, and draws a conclusion about the viability of a naive forecast.

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