1. Do the techniques used in country risk analyses illustrate clearly the distinction between correlation and cause and effect?
2. Will country risk analysis techniques help collect data only or will they also trend the data over time?
3. What is the impact of the legal and political environment on promising business opportunities?
4. Which are the main political risk factors that could jeopardize business operations?
5. Are there differences between the concept of risk in general and risks associated with global business sin particular?
6. Could MNCs manage legal and political risks in host countries?
7. What techniques can I use to mitigate political risk in the host country?
Please see attached file.
Automated Country Analysis Tools and services
Commercial off The Shelf (COTS) or service provides (i.e. Datamonitor) which offers in-depth data and analysis covering various industries. It includes detailed data on market size and segmentation, textual analysis of the key trends and competitive landscape, and profiles of the leading companies. This incisive report provides expert analysis on a global, regional and country basis.
Risk Analysis Matrix?tool used to list parameters of risk and opportunities. This tool identifies several Driving Factors (Social/Cultural, Political/Legal, Demographic, Economics, and Technology/Infrastructure) as well as several categories (Business Investments, Business Development, and Business Operations).
Qualitative Research?qualitative research focuses on groups and in-depth interviews have been used in one-off projects commissioned by guideline development groups to find out more about the views and experiences of the targeted group.
Quantitative Research?quantitative research generates numerical data or data that can be converted into numbers, for example the National Census, which counts people and households
Risk Based Decision Making (RBDM)?although defined as a process can be used as a tool for decision making for risk assessment. RBDM organizes information about the possibility for one or more unwanted outcomes into a broad, orderly structure that helps decision makers make more informed management choices.
(Risk Based Decision Making Guideline)
Decision Trees?tools for helping you to choose between several courses of action. They provide a highly effective structure within which you can lay out options and investigate the possible outcomes of choosing those options. They also help you to form a balanced picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course of action.
Mindtools (2005).Decision Tree Analysis.
These tools give us the indication in form of trends for various factors related to the country. Thus it helps in the giving correlation and also cause and effect relationship between the variables. Correlation, also called correlation coefficient, is a numeric measure of the strength of linear relationship between two random variables. In general statistical usage correlation or co-relation refers to the departure of two variables from independence. In this broad sense there are several coefficients, measuring the degree of correlation, adapted to the nature of data.
Correlation is a statistical technique, which can show whether and how strongly pairs of variables are related. Decision making processes must be based on data, neither on personal opinion nor on belief. But in some cases the relationship may not be fully known and may only give the hint or slight idea. Thus in those cases the cause and effect may not be known. The conventional dictum that "correlation does not imply causation" is treated in the article titled spurious relationship. However, correlations are not presumed to be acausal, though the causes may not be known.
A key thing to remember when working with correlations is never to assume a correlation means that a change in one variable causes a change in another. Sales of personal computers and athletic shoes have both risen strongly in the last several years and there is a high correlation between them, but you cannot assume that buying computers causes people to buy athletic shoes (or vice versa).
Causation is a relationship that holds between events, objects, variables, or states of affairs. It is usually presumed that the cause chronologically precedes the effect. Examples describing causal relationships:
* The ...
This explains the procedure to do Country Risk Analysis