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BUSINESS FORECASTING

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Apex Mutual fund invests primarily in technology stocks. The price of the fund at the end of each month for the 12 months are as follows:

January - 19.39
February - 18.96
March 18.20
April 17.89
May 18.43
June 19.98
July 19.51
August 20.63
sEPTEMBER 19.78
October 21.25
November 21.18
December 22.14

QUESTION: FIND THE FORECAST VALUE OF THE MUTUAL FUND FOR EACH MONTH BY USING THE NAIVE MODEL. THE VALUE FOR DECEMBER 1999 WAS. 19.00.

QUESTION: EVALUATE THE FORECAST USING MAD, MSE, MAPE AND MPE.

QUESTION: FORECAST THE MUTUAL PRICE FOR JANUARY 2001.

QUESTION: WRITE A MEMO SUMMARIZING YOUR FINDINGS.

I NEED ASSISTANCE IN LEARNING HOW TO FORECAST THE FUND FOR EACH MONTH USING THE NAIVE MODEL IN EXCEL. I ALSO NEED ASSISTANCE IN EVALUATING THE FORECASTING METHOD USING MAD, MSE, MAPE, MPE AND LASTLY, I NEED TO KNOW HOW TO FORECAST THE MUTUAL FUND FOR JANUARY 2001. IF YOU COULD ASSIST ME WITH A SIMILAR PROBLEM THAT I CAN FOLLOW IT IS GREATLY APPRECIATED. EXCEL FILE IS ATTACHED.

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1. There are many ways to forecast for the next period. I am using a method where , the actual price ...

Solution provided by:
Gaurav Agarwal, MS
Education
  • BE, Bangalore University, India
  • MS, University of Wisconsin-Madison
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