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Seasonal Forescasting in Excel

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For this assignment, our teacher gave us data for 144 periods and asks us... "use the best forecasting technique for forecast 12 periods into the future.

State all relevant assumptions, and briefly describe the technique(s) you used."

Now, I'm assuming this would be a seasonal forecast, but I'm not sure what technique to use.

We have only covered the following topics so far: 1) Time series analysis: SimpleMovingAverage, Weightedmovingaverage, Exponential Smoothing 2) Differencing 3) Forecast errors: absolute deviation, mean absolute deviation (MAD), and tracking signal 4) Single linear regression 5) Seasonalized time series regression; and nonlinear seasonal forecasting Not sure, but 5 seems likely...I do not know how to set this up in Excel and what "assumptions" to make...can you show me how to run this in Excel? thanks.

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Solution Summary

This solution contains a detailed explanation of using Excel to do Seasonal Forescasting

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Please see the attachment.
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<br><br>You can use Excel to do this analysis. In Excel, you click main menu and look for "Tools", then from "Tools" you can find "Data Analysis". Double ...

Solution provided by:
Changping Wang, MA
Education
  • BSc , Wuhan Univ. China
  • MA, Shandong Univ.
Recent Feedback
  • "Your solution, looks excellent. I recognize things from previous chapters. I have seen the standard deviation formula you used to get 5.154. I do understand the Central Limit Theorem needs the sample size (n) to be greater than 30, we have 100. I do understand the sample mean(s) of the population will follow a normal distribution, and that CLT states the sample mean of population is the population (mean), we have 143.74. But when and WHY do we use the standard deviation formula where you got 5.154. WHEN & Why use standard deviation of the sample mean. I don't understand, why don't we simply use the "100" I understand that standard deviation is the square root of variance. I do understand that the variance is the square of the differences of each sample data value minus the mean. But somehow, why not use 100, why use standard deviation of sample mean? Please help explain."
  • "excellent work"
  • "Thank you so much for all of your help!!! I will be posting another assignment. Please let me know (once posted), if the credits I'm offering is enough or you ! Thanks again!"
  • "Thank you"
  • "Thank you very much for your valuable time and assistance!"
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