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- Calculate the 3-month moving average and MSE
a. Exponentially smooth the data and MSE
b. Explain which method produces better results and why
c. Forecast the value for period 13 using the better method

Month
Yt
1 80
2 82
3 84
4 83
5 83
6 84
7 85
8 84
9 82
10 83
11 84
12 83

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Solution Summary

A 3-Month Simple Moving Average Forecast and an Exponentially Smoothed Moving Average Forecast has been performed in EXCEL. Further calculations for Forecast Accuracy Measures (Forecast Error, MSE) has been shown in Excel for the two different Forecast techniques and the two forecasts has been compared using these calculations.

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Solution provided by:
Anwesha Ghosh, MSc
Education
  • MSc, Osmania University
  • MSc, Indian Institute of Technology - Roorkee (I.I.T.-ROORKEE)
  • BSc, Banaras Hindu University
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