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Forecasting the demand by moving average method

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You sold the following number of flowers during the last two weeks. Calculate a forecast of the demand using a 3 and 5 period moving average. Graph these forecasts and the original data using excel. What does the graph show and which of the above forecasts is best and why.

Day 1 Demand Day Demand
1 200 8 150
2 134 9 182
3 157 10 197
4 165 11 136
5 177 12 163
6 125 13 157
7 146 14 169

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Solution Summary

Solution describes the steps to calculate a forecast of demand using a 3 and 5 period moving average method.

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Please refer attached file for better clarity of tables and missing graph.
Solution

3-period moving average

Day Demand, D Forecast, F Absolute value
of difference, D-F
1 200
2 134
3 157
4 165 163.67 1.33
5 177 152.00 25.00
6 125 166.33 41.33
7 146 155.67 9.67
8 150 149.33 0.67
9 182 140.33 41.67
10 197 159.33 37.67
11 136 176.33 40.33
12 163 171.67 8.67
13 157 165.33 8.33
14 169 152.00 17.00
15 ...

Solution provided by:
Lokesh Jain, MSc
Education
  • BEng (Hons) , Birla Institute of Technology and Science, India
  • MSc (Hons) , Birla Institute of Technology and Science, India
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