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US Retail sales data: use moving averages to forecast retail sales for next year

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Consider the attached file, which contains total monthly U.S retail sales data. While retaining the final 6 months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. what makes this time series more challenging to forecast?

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With extensive data presented, the solution computes moving averages to demonstrate trends in average retail sales.

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