Method Business Reason educated guess Small convenience store to forecast for no of cases of a particular drink for next week.
In this opinions and ideas of the expert are discussed for the analysis. This type of forecasting is best suited to the organizational business perspectives (Wessels, 2000).
You need to know what assumptions are use so that you can properly understand why the forecast results were a certain way and what factors/variables were included in the forecast.
It is suggested that you use a large sample. Chances of capturing a trend or pattern is high when n is large. The solution computes for a five-period and ten-year moving average and a ten-year forecasts.
Another way to reduce the chances of forecasts that are intentionally inaccurate is to hold a development session with the managers and explain the importance of truthful forecasts.
However we can think of specific circumstances where you might want to begin with one specific method before applying the others. I will explain the properties of each and provide one example.
The method was found easy by all members of the group and finally, the method was able to gain the consensus for using it, as a tool for forecasting.
I had previously completed the initial project for my client, the ABC Furniture Company, which was comprised of developing and testing a forecasting method that used Linear Regression techniques.
Sony uses a wide range of qualitative methods to forecast the type of new products that might be technology feasible and in demand by the customers in the future.
And state why we ended up going with a particular method as the most accurate. If we use moving aveage approaches, we are to use no more than 15 averaging periods.