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Future scenarios

How do people and firms project into the future? We all wake up with an idea of how the day will unfold, but random chance often enters our lives. Consider the links that follow and prepare a paragraph about your opinion of future scenarios. Are they useful? How are they constructed? How could you use them in your own life or the groups you are part of? Why might people think these are not terribly useful in certain situations?

The first link is from the Global Business Network and lays out the rationale for scenarios. The second is from a site devoted to educating others how to build scenarios.

First link: http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php

Second Link: http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/tou/tut2-buildscenarios.html

Solution Preview

Dear Student,
Hello and thank you for using Brainmass. I hope the solution below will get you started with this question. It asks you to discuss and analyze the links and their contents and give their opinion. Good luck. I have listed some additional links to help you if you want more information.

Sincerely,
OTA 105878/Xenia Jones
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Using Scenarios

Most firms and individuals who like to be able to manage the uncertainty of their future look towards the utilization of scenarios to prepare for the unexpected. Fons Trompenar from the GBN shares that scenario thinking is both a process and a future. Process because it goes through a particular methodology, an analysis of the environment, trends, elements that might influence outcomes and likely possibilities. Posture because once scenarios are internalized it informs perspectives and becomes an important part of decision making. The strength of scenarios have been proven by military tacticians throughout World History especially in WW2, Vietnam War, Korean War, the 1st Gulf War and now the Global War on Terror in fronts like Iraq, Afghanistan and in making the US Defense System Robust where all likely scenarios have been worked over and over again to ascertain the best possible steps and reactions towards a favourable outcome. The idea is that when all possibilities have ...

Solution Summary

The solution is an 817-word essay that discusses the topics indicated in the original problem, especially the use of future scenarios, their construction and application for risk management. The links indicated are also analyzed for relevance. references are listed for expansion, a word version of the solution is attached for easy download and printing.

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