# Forecasting: Weighted average, Moving average, Exponential

Please see the two attached documents where complete problem is given.

Your Director of Supply Chain needs help in developing forecasts. Choose one of the following three options. - Must show work.....

Develop forecasts for periods 6 through 24 using MA with 3 periods, 4 periods, and 5 periods, or...

Develop forecasts for periods 3 through 24 using a smoothing factor of 0.2 and 0.3, or...

Develop forecasts for periods 5 through 24 using weighted moving average with weights of 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1.

Calculate the MAD and MSE for all of your forecasts. Start MAD and MSE calculations for moving averages in period 6. Start MAD and MSE calculations for exponential smoothing in period 5. Start MAD and MSE calculations for Weighted Averages in period 5.

Period Actual Quantity
1 420
2 222
3 276
4 167
5 266
6 305
7 430
8 412
9 388
10 368
11 220
12 457
13 267
14 277
15 242
16 590
17 147
18 566
19 267
20 361
21 338
22 351
23 217

This question has the following supporting file(s):

• Forecasts.doc
• Period and Actual Quantity.xls
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Solution Summary

Forecasting has been done using Weighted average, Moving average, Exponential methods

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Extracted Content from Question Files:

• Forecasts.doc

Deliverable Length: 1 or more excel or other worksheets

Objective • Develop a systematic framework for analyzing the behavior of complex supply
chain networks and supply chain drivers.
• Apply the appropriate operations tools to aid in decision-making and optimize
performance.

Your Director of Supply Chain needs help in developing forecasts. Choose one of the following
three options. – Must show work…..

Develop forecasts for periods 6 through 24 using MA with 3 periods, 4 periods, and 5 periods,
or…

Develop forecasts for periods 3 through 24 using a smoothing factor of 0.2 and 0.3, or…

Develop forecasts for periods 5 through 24 using weighted moving average with weights of 0.4,
0.3, 0.2, and 0.1.

moving averages in period 6. Start MAD and MSE calculations for exponential smoothing in
period 5. Start MAD and MSE calculations for Weighted Averages in period 5.

Tools:

Chart of period and actual quantity to perform your calculations – See attached Spreadsheet

• Period and Actual Quantity.xls

Period Actual Quantity Forecast Error
1 420
2 222
3 276
4 167
5 266
6 305
7 430
8 412
9 388
10 368
11 220
12 457
13 267
14 277
15 242
16 590
17 147
18 566
19 267
20 361
21 338
22 351
23 217